Mauritania's glass house: under construction, Iran: her foreman

I have recently become a newshound, hungry for developments on what has been described as a benign coup. Imagine my surprise when I found this headline, a comic gem screaming through dozens of googlenews hyperlinks:

Iran calls situation in Mauritania worrisome

Giggling, I read the headline for anyone within earshot. We shared communal explosive bursts of laughter and wondered if that meant the coup was turning for the better.

Then, I realized, I didn't know the political situation in Iran. Who was I to guffaw in ignorance? So I immediately turned to the most reliable reference I know.

Wikipedia explained as succinctly as possible the hierarchy of elected officials (President, Parliament, Assembly of Experts), clearly non-elected officials (the Supreme Leader, Judiciary Head) and the convolutedly non-elected officials (members of the Council of Guardians are half appointed by the Supreme Leader, half elected by [elected] Parliament from candidates proposed by the Judiciary Head who is appointed by the SP). A handy organizational chart is available here.

All in all, not bad: elections and a system of checks and balances. Delve into the details, however, and Iran's politics become increasingly problematic. The Assembly of Experts, the body that oversees the Supreme Leader, is chosen by direct public vote and its members serve limited (8 year) terms. But how does "direct," "public," or "vote" play out when each member must be screened by the government?¹

Additionally, these Experts are endowed with the power to unseat the Supreme Leader if he "lobs one of the qualifications mentioned in Constitution" or turns out to have fibbed about having fulfilled such qualifications. Yet, never, in Iran's history of "expertise" (the Assembly was born circa 1983), has this group of 86 "virtuous and learned" clerics dismissed a sitting Supreme Leader. Nor have they ever challenged or even overseen a single one of his decisions. Either they have had supremely Supreme Leaders, or something is awry.

Oddly enough, there are as many sites dedicated to decrying Iran's policies as there are to following Britney Spears' antics. Despite wildly differing audiences and agendas, both fanatical followings tend toward jarring fluorescent color schemes and ungainly marquees with too many exclamation points!!!!!1.

Others, however (think more intellectual, less omfg), look to Iran as a possible hotbed of democracy in the Muslim world. In Democracy in Iran (2006), Ali Gheissari and Vali Nasr examine the potential for functional democracy to evolve from Iran's clerical autocracy. Reviewing the book, Prof Joel Midgal from University of Washington said it nicely:

"Iran keeps flirting with democratic governance, more than practically any other Islamic country in the Middle East, yet somehow always seems to fall short of sealing the marriage."²

Although four years old, Emadeddin Baqi's analysis reads as currently disappointed but hopeful too. His article "Hope for Democracy in Iran (2004)" cites the following promising indicators: extended higher education productively occupying youth; the addition of human rights in popular discussion and military colleges' curricula; an increase in female university students, journalists, and NGO leaders; as well as an increased divorce rate (sad but representative of a shift in traditional marriage).³

There is also a flurry of articles available at opendemocracy.net, one of which describes the current scene that will eventually lead to the presidential 2009 elections. It seems that political circles concentric to current President Ahmadinejad are decrying recent moves by the conservative military to discourage reformist candidates. Would be intimidators admit unapologetically that moderate rivals will never make it through the ominous government screening process, the Guardian Council (see footnote 1 below).

Unfortunately, however, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has embraced this military intervention and its intimidation tactics. Depending on your source, Khamenei has either silently acquiesced or has openly supported candidates who espouse conservative ideologies, especially those who "separate their line unequivocally from the enemy [the United States]." According to the article's author (Rasool Nafisi "Iran’s majlis elections: the hidden dynamics" 2008), the mentality is patronage of the poor, not fiscal responsibility; [vindictive] justice, not democracy.

If you were looking for political progress since the 2004 elections (during which the Guardian Council conveniently disqualified rival candidates, the government raised the voting age to disenfranchise probable moderate supporters, and ballot counters employed shady strategies to increase voter turnout statistics), you might be disappointed next year. More disturbingly, the rising power-bloc in Iran seems to be shifting from the traditional, conservative clerical base into a more radical military faction. I'm no expert, but this seems at best a troubled formula for democracy, and at worst a ripe environment for continued military political intervention.

It seems as though my initial impression, which is now largely more informed, was not too far from the educated truth. Not that emerging democracies are laughing matters, but Iran's scorn for Mauritania's recent hiccup is. Something about glass houses and stones I believe...

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1: I was not the only one to have this paranoid thought. In 2005, just after the election of current President Mahmood Ahmadinejad, Iran's democracy was labeled a "sham" due to unelected clerics having inordinate sway over presidential candidates. This rigging seems an inherent flaw (or fortunate loophole, depending) in the Iranian democratic system.

2: Not that I condemn flirtation, even shameless variations thereof. But democracy is really the monogamous, take-home-to-your-parents-type.

3: Baqi (also spelled Baghi), a prize-winning journalist and advocate for democracy, human and prisoners' rights, was arrested in October 2007 for "spreading propaganda and publishing secret documents" and has been hospitalized several times since. News on his condition can be found here. For a taste of his style and passion, read his statement for the British Press Awards.